Belief state of biomass available per fishing spot, per species, per time step
Location and action of all competitors
Bellman equation unsolvable
Pragmatism
Logbook data
Surveys
“I have only 5 spots and cycle through them”
“If in a bind, track highliner on radar and copy them”
“Explore a fixed proportion of tows”
“Draw peaks and valleys on maps”
Zoo approach
Collect decision algorithms
From interviews
From CS-literature
Implement them in the same agent-based model
Test strengths/weaknesses in theory
Compare to real data
Use it for policy suggestions and sensitivity analysis
Explore-Exploit-Imitate
\begin{algorithm}
\caption{Explore-Exploit-Imitate}
\begin{algorithmic}
\WHILE{game is not over}
\IF{$\text{random} < \epsilon$}
\COMMENT{with probability $\epsilon$, explore}
\STATE $\hat \delta \sim U[-\delta,\delta]$
\STATE $\text{position} \leftarrow \text{position} + \hat \delta$
\COMMENT{explore by shocking your position by $\delta$}
\ELSE
\STATE $\text{profits}_f$ are the profits made by your most profitable friend
\STATE $\text{profits}_{\text{me}}$ are the profits just made by this agent
\IF{$\text{profits}_f>\text{profits}_{\text{me}}$}
\STATE copy friend location
\ELSE
\STATE stay at current location
\ENDIF
\ENDIF
\ENDWHILE
\end{algorithmic}
\end{algorithm}
Two Agents sample run
Many Agents
Cui prodest?
Model free
Adaptive
Fuel Prices
Fish the Line (part 1)
Fish the Line (part 2)
Fishing the Australian line
A flexible simulator
Flexible in terms of:
Fisher Behaviour
Biology
Management Measures (MPAs vs Quotas vs…)
Will fishers switch target in response to abundance changes?